Sep 22, 2025 Penguin Passions and Plunging Populations

It is well known that giant pandas attract a lot of attention from enthusiastic fans. However, it might surprise some that penguins also attract widespread public interest and passion. Ron Kagan, the former director of the Detroit Zoo, created a penguin exhibit that received a great deal of public attention and earned a prestigious award from the Association of Zoos & Aquariums for excellence in exhibit design. He recently remarked that:

“[I]f one reflects on which animals trigger biophilia, capturing our imagination and fascination, Penguins (and Pandas) might top the list. Penguins are visually quite distinctive in their “tuxedos,” and they are endowed with numerous exceptional physical abilities. Penguins are avian torpedoes (flying through water) and possess thermoregulatory tolerances beyond the already exceptional abilities of most other birds. They are also curious and quite comical to humans in how they walk (waddle) and talk (squawk).”

Kagan’s observations may explain the controversy over the sharp decline in African penguin populations along the coast of Southern Africa [and why the animated penguin movie Happy Feet grossed $384 million]. While no one knows the exact number of African penguins at the start of the 20th century, it is believed that the species may have had between 1.5 million and 3 million individuals in 1900. By 1956, the population had dropped to around 300,000. In 1993, reports indicated that the population had continued to decrease to 44,300 breeding pairs, with further declines to 9,900 breeding pairs in 2023. The species was declared Vulnerable in 1984 by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Its status was raised to Endangered in 2007, and on October 28, 2024, the IUCN upgraded the African Penguin’s status to Critically Endangered. If the decline continues, the African penguin could become extinct in the wild by 2035, just ten years from now.

Nobody disputes the decline in African penguin numbers in the 20th century, but there is no consensus on why their numbers are decreasing. Marine ecosystems are complex, and determining the causes, which are likely multiple, of declining penguin populations requires careful data analysis and the development and use of MICE (Models of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem assessments).

A likely apparent cause is a change in the marine food web supporting seabirds. The preferred prey for African penguins is small fish like sardines and anchovies that thrive in the nutrient-rich waters off the West coast of South Africa and Namibia. However, human fisheries also target these small fish, mainly harvesting them for fish meal used in domestic animal feed. Poor fishery management off the West coasts of South Africa and Namibia has led to typical boom-and-bust cycles memorialized in John Steinbeck’s ‘Cannery Row.’ In Southern Africa, the sardine and anchovy fishery off the West coast collapsed due to overfishing and has never recovered. In South Africa, the annual catch of these small fish surged from 200,000 tons in the 1950s to over 400,000 tons in the early 1960s. However, in 2017 and 2018, the annual sardine catch fell to less than 40,000 tons.

Seabirds and marine animals mainly rely on these small fish during breeding seasons. If penguins have to make longer journeys to find and catch fish when they are raising young, it is likely to hurt their breeding success. As a result, penguin advocates have campaigned hard to protect penguin food sources and to limit coastal fisheries. A recent landmark agreement with the South African fishing industry to stop fishing around several African penguin breeding sites was widely praised. However, it is still unclear what impact such closures will have on penguin populations. Food shortages may not be the only factor causing declines in African penguin populations. Seals prey on seabirds, including penguins, and such predation may have a significant impact on penguin populations. Ocean noise due to increasing boat traffic is another possible factor affecting penguin foraging and reproductive success.

A MICE approach looking at the impact of guano harvesting on African penguin populations also indicated that guano harvesting for agricultural fertilizer has hurt successful penguin reproduction. On the islands that support African penguin colonies, the birds lay their eggs in burrows in the guano deposits (created by the fecal droppings from multitudes of roosting seabirds). These burrows protect the adults from the hot sun and permit the adults to protect the eggs and fledglings from predation. However, the MICE model of guano harvesting did not account for the continuing declines in penguin populations over the past decade.

The substantive agreement to protect the African penguin reached between environmental advocates and the fishing industry in South Africa has been widely (and appropriately) welcomed. However, it is not at all clear how much of a positive impact the agreement will have on the African penguin population in the coming decade and whether the new limits placed on human harvesting of small fish in the ocean around Namibia and South Africa will save the African penguin from extinction in the wild.