Nov 09, 2025 COP30: Realignment?

COP30: Context

The 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) is the annual United Nations conference on climate change, established under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) treaty. This year’s 2025 conference will take place in Brazil, from November 10 to November 21. Unlike COP28, held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and COP29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan—both in oil-producing countries—COP30 is being hosted in Belém, the capital of Pará, a state in Northern Brazil. Belém serves as a gateway to the Amazon River and is situated on the edge of the Amazon rainforest. There is hope that COP30 can bring significant progress in protecting tropical forests and their crucial carbon sinks. The COP30’s President-designate, André Corrêa do Lago, has designated COP30 as the “Implementation COP.”(1)

Member states of the United Nations that are “Parties” to the Convention are represented as signatories at the annual Conference of the Parties (COP). These representatives come together to review and make decisions regarding the implementation of the Convention.

The Paris Agreement, an accord under the UNFCCC Convention, was adopted in December 2015 and officially entered into force on November 4, 2016, when at least 55 countries, accounting for 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions, deposited their instrument of ratification, acceptance, approval, or accession to the agreement with the Depositary. Please refer to the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat’s memo for a more detailed description of how the Paris Agreement came into force and the requirements for States to become Parties to the Paris Agreement.

The process required a consensus among the Parties to the Convention for the final text, and each State was required to submit a signature to indicate its intent to proceed. After these initial steps, the approval process for the Paris Agreement allowed four pathways: ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. Ratification necessitates formal approval through each state’s parliamentary process. In the case of the United States, ratification would have required the approval of the U.S. Senate. Acceptance and approval in the context of the Paris Agreement are very similar in legal effect—they both indicate a state’s consent to be bound by the treaty without requiring the formal legislative process that “ratification” usually involves. Accession provides a pathway for states that wish to become a Party to the agreement after the Agreement has already entered into force.

For instance, in the U.S., the Obama administration chose the acceptance pathway, which did not require Senate approval. This approach yielded non-binding outcomes and facilitated the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, as no Senate action was needed. The Trump administration was able to withdraw from the Paris Agreement in January 2025 (for the second time) without needing Senate approval. However, it is essential to note that withdrawing from the UNFCCC treaty, under which the Paris Agreement accord was established, would have required Senate approval.

Currently, there are 195 signatories and parties to the Paris Agreement, comprising 182 countries that have ratified, seven countries that have accepted, three countries that have approved, and three countries that have acceded.(2)

COP30: Goals

Brazil’s COP30 host country representatives have stated that this conference marks a realignment in focus, shifting from negotiations to action and implementation, with a strong emphasis on the Amazon and socio-bioeconomy. This shift emphasizes that COP30 is not just about pledges, but also about implementation.

“As negotiations emanating from COP21 [the Paris agreement] conclude, we must refocus our efforts on action and implementation. Words and text must be translated into actual practice and transformations on the ground. The credibility and strength of the regime hinge upon it.”  André Corrêa do Lago, COP30 President-Designate (3)

“This report issues one collective mission for COP30: to respond to climate urgency through accelerated implementation, solidarity and ambitious international cooperation, as the collective bridge from Belém to the next policy cycle of the Paris Agreement.” COP30 President Designate, André Corrêa do Lago, comments on the issuance of the COP30 2025 Synthesis Report on Nationally Determined Contributions.

As the host of the COP30 conference, Brazil emphasizes the importance of implementation, with a focus on forests, finance, and socio-bioeconomy (supporting indigenous economies while preserving the forest). The key objectives include:

• Climate Finance Transformation: Mobilizing $1.3 trillion annually for climate action.
• Forest Conservation: Establishing the Tropical Forests Forever Global Fund and protecting 1 billion hectares across 70 countries.
• Carbon Market Integration: Creating the Open Coalition for Integration of Carbon Markets.
• Action Agenda with Six Pillars: Energy, industry, and transport transitions, Forest, ocean, and biodiversity management, Agriculture and food systems transformation, Urban resilience and water infrastructure, Human and social development, and Enablers: finance, technology, and capacity-building.
• Specific Targets: Halt and reverse deforestation by 2030, triple global renewable energy capacity, double the rate of energy efficiency improvements, and transition away from fossil fuels in a fair and equitable way.

 
The United Nations’ goals are focused on accelerating global climate action under the Paris Agreement, with the following key objectives:

• Temperature Goals: Maintaining global temperature increase under 1.5°C. [In 2024, the average increase was 1.55^oC.]
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Update national commitments to reduce emissions.
• Finance Commitments: Scaling up climate finance support for developing nations and implementing the Baku-Belém Roadmap.
• Focus on Adaptation and the Loss and Damage Fund: Advancing indicators for Global Goals on Adaptation and operationalizing the Loss and Damage Fund.
• Just Transition: Accelerating the fair shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
• Global Ethical Stocktake: Embedding accountability and transparency in climate action.

 
COP30: Current Status

A core element of climate change efforts under the Paris Agreement is the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Each country develops its own climate action plan, which includes:

• Emission reduction targets for greenhouse gases (GHG) at the national level.
• Adaptation measures to address the impacts of climate change.
• Policies and actions to achieve these goals.

 
These plans (the NDCs) represent the highest possible ambition and must be updated every five years, including a commitment to increase national targets with each update.

NDCs can measure GHG emissions either as absolute values or as a percentage decline below a baseline. They also detail adaptation strategies, set conditional and unconditional targets, and encompass various sectors, including energy, transport, industry, and land use.

NDCs are used to evaluate a nation’s ambition and planning efforts. In contrast, Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs), submitted on a two-year cycle, provide updates on progress made toward meeting the NDCs. BTRs are essential for ensuring accountability and transparency in climate action.

The original deadline for the current round of NDC submissions was February 10, 2025; however, it was subsequently extended to September 2025. As of November 11, 2025, at 12:48 PM EST, 112 of the 197 countries expected to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) had completed the submission, according to the Climate Watch’s NDC Tracker. The completed submissions account for 57% of the expected NDCs and 71% of global emissions. (4)(5)

The table presents data on four different measures of national greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 by nine countries and the EU. The top nine emitting countries and the EU collectively account for 70% of the world’s annual carbon dioxide emissions, measured in global equivalents, released into the atmosphere.

COP30: Refocus and Realigning to Accelerate Implementation Efforts

As with any household, company, industry, or government, the question is often: How can we perform effectively and efficiently and quickly deliver the desired impacts and improve outcomes? It is also fair and strategic to refocus or realign our efforts to deliver on our climate change goals.

Concerns have been raised regarding global events, shifts in national priorities, a lack of focused efforts, and the slow implementation of climate change initiatives. These issues have impacted global efforts to combat climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. A focus on such challenges is not intended to diminish the significant success achieved since the Paris Agreement came into force, but rather to highlight a crucial variable that needs to take center stage: time.

The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels was surpassed in 2024, when the average global temperature reached 1.55 °C above pre-industrial levels. Given the time required to halt the rise in temperatures, it has become clear that time constraints are one of the most critical challenges to address. Realignment and refocusing should be considered to enhance efficiency and efficacy in meeting our climate goals. Several challenge areas will be discussed.

Rethinking COPs

The effectiveness of the current COP format should be addressed. First, does the exponential growth in the number of participants attending the recent COPs hinder or help decision-making in implementing the Convention? Second, the expansion and complexity of topics included on recent COP agendas mirror the growth in participants and the complexity of logistics. Is it too much for one conference? Third, decisions by consensus are generally the standard at climate COPs; however, do they lead to decisions that reflect too much compromise, take too long, and delay implementation? Fourth, do we understand the opportunity costs of holding these conferences?

1. Participant Attendance

The exponential growth in attendance and side events complicates logistics and COP negotiations. Over the past four years, attendance figures have seen a remarkable increase: COP26 had 38,467 attendees, COP27 had 49,704, COP28 had 83,884, and COP29 reached 54,148. See Chart. It is estimated that COP30 will host close to 50,000 attendees. According to the UN handbook for Hosting a COP, the logistics and infrastructure necessary to accommodate such large numbers lead to accommodation shortages, limited transportation, and issues with venue readiness. Additionally, the financial burden on the host country, including venue costs, security, staffing, and technology, can be substantial at these attendance levels.

2. Expanded Agenda

A review of the COP agenda topics from recent years reveals many new topics, expanded scopes, and increased non-state participation, which may be a result of the rise in participation numbers. Expanded topics include mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, climate finance, technology transfer & capacity building, transparency & reporting, nature-based solutions & biodiversity, just transition & social equity, non-state actor engagement, and many cross-cutting issues such as trade, food systems, security, and others. Ultimately, climate change involves global systems that require multi-sectoral solutions, accountability, and inclusive participation. Breaking down COPs into more manageable forums appears to be a likely pathway to improve the speed at which we can implement changes.

3. Consensus-based Decision Process

Do conferences of recent sizes slow negotiations and extend the duration of conferences? Does consensus-based decision-making add to the challenge? Consensus-based decision-making is a recurring concern raised in relation to the voting procedures at COP meetings and the challenges associated with achieving consensus.

According to Rietig et al., the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has yet to establish formal rules of procedure for the treaty. Rietig et al. emphasize that there is a general understanding that UNFCCC decisions are made by consensus.(6) However, in the absence of a precise definition for consensus, the rotation of COP leaders applying their own variations of consensus will likely lead to variations in how consensus is applied. This situation undermines both efficiency and effectiveness, as well as the goal of accelerating implementation. Without overemphasizing the issue, reevaluating the voting process and seriously considering majority voting could be a constructive first step.

4. Opportunity Costs of COP

The cost to hold the COP events must be staggering. A complete analysis of costs incurred by the Host Country, the UNFCCC and related UN agencies, as well as participant expenses, could not be found. The comprehensive UN Handbook for hosting United Nations Climate Change Conferences does not address the overall costs of conducting these conferences. A thorough accounting of the expenses incurred by the host country, UN-related entities, and participants for the last four COP meetings should be completed to understand the opportunity costs of these climate COPs fully.

Calling attention to the opportunity costs of these conferences does not imply that these conferences do not offer important benefits. Such benefits might include facilitating global consensus on climate governance, mobilizing financial resources, and establishing frameworks for adaptation and mitigation. Additionally, they could provide visibility and participation opportunities for vulnerable nations and civil society, as well as serve as critical checkpoints for accountability and transparency under the Paris Agreement. WellBeing International would add that the COPs bring global visibility and awareness to climate change, which is needed to drive change organically.

However, at the current level of on-site participation and extraordinary cost to offer these conferences, a natural tipping point may have been reached where a change is needed, and steps should be taken to review the current COP structure and consider possible alternatives, including reevaluating the size, location, and frequency of the COP meetings and their expanding agendas and convoluted decision-making. Reaching this tipping point may also be driven by a shift from a negotiation focus to one of implementation, facilitating the speed of action required for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. As noted earlier, the host country’s COP30 goal is to accelerate implementation, which will depend on the efficiency and efficacy of resource use.

 Changes in National Priorities

Global events affect national priorities. For example, the recent U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will have both symbolic and practical implications. The Paris Agreement has fostered transparency and generated peer pressure to meet and exceed targets. It requires countries to submit and update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years. While these targets are nonbinding, they ensure a level of transparency regarding the efforts each country is making to reduce national emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change. It was hoped that the U.S. would lead by example, inspiring other nations to set ambitious targets.

In Europe, Member States have seen shifts in support for green initiatives due to economic challenges, budget constraints, and increased military spending. However, the EU’s Council of the European Union, after much deliberation, gave the final approval for the EU’s updated NDC shortly before the scheduled start date of COP30. The submission targets a 55% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels), a 66.25%-72% reduction by 2035, and an agreement on a 90% reduction target by 2040. The submission of the NDC represents a unified stance and ambition ahead of COP30.

Global Events

 Wars continue to shape our world, influencing not just the nations involved but also those connected through treaties and alliances. These conflicts impact global security, disrupt supply chains and manufacturing, and affect national economies worldwide. These events will continue to divert resources and efforts from climate change action.

COP30: The Science

Climate change science is complex. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 to produce assessment reports on whether climate change is occurring and, if so, what factors are driving it. The IPCC has published six Assessment Reports since its launch, typically produced by a task force comprising approximately 200 climate scientists selected from around the world. The first report was published in 1995, and the sixth in 2023. The seventh is projected to be published in 2029. In general, the reports (and the computer model used by the IPCC) have accurately predicted global temperature increases despite the complexity of the science. However, the reports have consistently underestimated the extent of sea level rise (predicting an increase of 2mm per annum when the actual rise has been 3.3 mm per annum). In addition, the loss of Arctic sea ice is outpacing the rate predicted by earlier IPCC reports.

Nevertheless, given the complexity of the Earth’s climate and the many factors that contribute to annual warming or cooling, the climate models used by the IPCC are performing well. There have also been two reviews of academic publications on climate change, one covering the period from 1997 to 2012 and the second covering the period from 2012 to November 2020. The first review identified approximately 73,000 papers on climate science and reported that 97% of the studies supported the conclusion that human activities are a significant contributor to global warming. The more recent review identified 88,125 climate-related publications and reported that 99.9% of the papers concluded that human activities were a substantial contributor to planetary warming. The lead author of the recent review, Dr. Mark Lynas, commented that it “is pretty much case closed” regarding the overwhelming consensus position among climate scientists that global warming trends are caused by human activities.

Given that human activities are the cause of global warming trends, what can humans do to mitigate these trends or adapt to a warmer world? Recently, Bill Gates published a blog on the topic that was widely misrepresented in the media as a reversal of his earlier positions on climate change. The blog actually affirms his earlier concerns about the impact of climate change, but he argues that a narrow focus on temperature rise and the belief that a warming planet will lead to the decimation of human civilization is wrong. Instead, he reports that humans could continue to thrive, even on a warmer planet, provided they tap into the remarkable human capacity to innovate – see examples below.

Electricity generation – 28% of greenhouse gas emissions

Gates highlights the remarkable advancements in renewable energy sources. These developments range from the extraordinary drop in the cost of solar and wind power in just the last decade (making solar and wind electrical generation less expensive than power plants running on fossil fuels), to the development of cost-efficient geothermal heat sources, to the development of more efficient cables to power the electricity grid, to ongoing steps towards new sources of nuclear power, including the ultimate goal of a working nuclear fusion power plant. Nuclear fusion reactors would produce unlimited electricity whenever needed with very little radioactive waste.

Manufacturing – 30% of greenhouse gas emissions

While the generation of electricity currently accounts for just over a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions, manufacturing is responsible for 30% of emissions. The production of just two products, steel and cement, accounts for around half of the 30% of greenhouse gas emissions produced by manufacturing. Steel and cement are cheap to make using fossil fuels, and the green premium (the additional cost of making cement and steel using renewable energy) is high. Gates notes that several companies have found ways to produce cement with no green premium, but making the switch to new technologies will require substantial investment, time, and a focused commitment.

Agriculture – 19% of Greenhouse Gas emissions

Most of agriculture’s greenhouse gas emissions come from two sources: the production and use of fertilizer and methane (a potent warming gas) production by grazing livestock (e.g., cow burps and farts). A synthetic fertilizer that emits no emissions is already available. A process has also been developed to convert methane from manure into organic fertilizer. Both are cheaper than existing fertilizers, but persuading farmers to shift to these alternatives will be a challenge. Growing rice also produces significant amounts of methane, but companies are developing new rice cultivation methods that reduce methane emissions while increasing rice yields.

Transportation (16% of greenhouse gas emissions)

Innovation is leading to rapid gains in the transport sector. Over 17 million electric vehicles (22% of vehicle sales globally) were sold in 2024, with BYD (the Chinese company) and Tesla leading the way. Both companies experienced a 500% increase in sales volume over the five years from 2019 to 2023. In addition, batteries continue to improve. However, airplane emissions are projected to double by 2050, and alternative aviation fuel is still approximately four times the price of traditional fuel sources – in other words, there is a very high green premium for new aviation fuels.

Buildings (7% of greenhouse gas emissions)

Heating and cooling buildings currently contribute a small amount to global warming, but this sector is likely to increase rapidly with continuing urbanization and growing air-conditioning needs. Electric heat pumps are widely available and are becoming increasingly efficient. However, there are not enough skilled workers in the world to install and maintain them.

COP30: Global Goal for Adaptation (GGA)

The organizers of COP30 in Belém, as well as Bill Gates, have pointed to the need for more efficient implementation of innovations that can help humans adapt to climate change. Gates has argued against a narrow focus on temperature change, emphasizing the many innovations that could lead to improved human health and welfare, even in a warmer world.

The 2015 Paris COP agreement included an article (7.1) focusing on a Global Goal for Adaptation (GGA) that states the GGA should “enhance[e] adaptive capacity, strengthen … resilience and reduc[e] vulnerability to climate change”. However, unlike the goal to reduce emissions (Article 4 of the Paris Agreement), measuring progress on adaptation is significantly more challenging. For six years following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the GGA did not appear on the agendas of COP meetings. This changed in 2021 at the Glasgow COP and subsequently, as work began on developing adaptation targets, leading to agreement on a GGA “framework” at COP28 in Dubai.

In the two years following COP28, work has been ongoing to reduce the number of GGA indicators from the 9,000 initially proposed to just 100. By the time of the Bonn climate negotiations in June 2025, the list of potential indicators had been narrowed to 490 from the initial list of 9,529 indicators. While this was a substantial refinement, there were still broad concerns about the level of adaptation financing available. A final decision on the adaptation indicators is expected at COP30. President-designate Correa do Lago has noted that adaptation is “the visible face of the global response to climate change” and a “central pillar for aligning climate action with sustainable development”. The COP30 host country hopes the event will deliver an agreement on the practical components of the GGA and its implementation.

COP30: Final Comments

In an earlier newsletter on COP27, WBI suggested that a closer focus on the subsets of countries using and producing the greatest amounts of fossil fuels could lead to more effective action in reducing GHG emissions and reducing global warming. That recommendation still makes sense. The ten countries (including the EU) that emit the most greenhouse gases annually account for 70% of annual global emissions. These ten offer the most potential for mitigating global GHG emissions. Five of the ten are already below their peak emissions (the EU in 1990, Brazil in 2004, the U.S. in 2007, Japan in 2013, and Indonesia in 2015). The data from Brazil and Indonesia suggest that even emerging economies can reduce their emissions while continuing to grow their GDP.

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Updated at 12:48 PM EST on November 11, 2025

Notes

(1) COP30 designated the “Implementation COP” by the COP30 Presidency   COP30 Presidency outlines priorities and vision at WMO
(2) The United Nations maintains records and status for the Paris Agreement and can be found on the UN website at UNTC.
(3) Verified quote from André Corrêa do Lago sourced from UNFCCC official document: https://unfccc.int/documents/64594
(4) Climate Watch NDC Tracker. 2025. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Available online at: https://www.climatewatchdata.org/ndc-tracker
(5) Country Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data and Methodology, Climate Watch Country Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data and Methodology | World Resources Institute  doi.org/10.46830/writn.20.00105
(6) Rietig, K., Peringer, C., Theys, S. et al. Unanimity or standing aside? Reinterpreting consensus in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations. Int Environ Agreements 23, 221–234 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-023-09593-y