Dec 04, 2024 COP29 Selected Dynamics and Context in Baku, Azerbaijan
The annual Conference of Parties (COP) on climate change has grown into a bloated international meeting where thousands of lobbyists, non-profit advocates and representatives from most of the 195 countries in the world vie for attention and influence. There are estimated to be 40-50,000 people assembled in Baku for COP29 this November to argue over global progress, or the lack thereof, on climate change and global warming. Last year, there were reported to be more than 70,000 people assembled in Dubai for climate’s COP28.
The first Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP1) took place in 1995 in Berlin, attracting fewer than 5,000 in-person attendees. Aside from the COP15 conference in Copenhagen in 2009, attendance at these conferences remained relatively low, typically under 20,000 participants. This changed during COP21 in Paris, where attendance surged to 30,372. Following the Paris conference, attendance declined again, but it gradually rose over the years, ultimately peaking at around 70,000 in-person attendees during COP28 in Dubai.
Attendance at the climate COPs can indirectly indicate how seriously the world’s population and its leaders are addressing climate change. At COP29, fossil fuel companies were heavily represented, with reports indicating that 1,773 lobbyists from the coal, oil, and gas sectors were granted access to the event. This includes 132 lobbyists whom Azerbaijan, the host country, specifically invited. Additionally, around 480 lobbyists promoting carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies were present in Baku, with about half of them being members of their national delegations, which gives them greater access to the negotiations. While the World Economic Forum advocates for CCS technologies to limit global warming, environmental advocates are not as optimistic about their effectiveness.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies capture and remove just 0.1% of annual global carbon dioxide emissions, which amounts to approximately 45 million metric tons. Climate models created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) project that CCS will capture around one billion tons, or about 2% of annual carbon dioxide emissions, by 2030 and several billion tons by 2050. However, environmental advocates argue that the focus on CCS is merely a temporary solution that allows companies and countries to avoid addressing the root problem: the need to end the use of fossil fuels.
At COP28 in Dubai, food production was addressed significantly for the first time at a climate conference. According to the analysis, the global food system accounts for 11% to 33% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions, possibly even more. According to the World Resources Institute, 159 countries signed the COP28 Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action. Together, these countries represent 77% of global food production and 81% of the world’s arable land. A new UN initiative, the Food Systems Summits (UNFSS), is focused on transforming global food systems, while the Food Systems Countdown Initiative (FSCI) monitors the state of food systems and tracks national progress.
With the increased emphasis on food and its effects on climate change, it is not surprising that around 200 agriculture lobbyists are attending COP29. Nearly 40% of these lobbyists are part of their country’s official delegation, granting them privileged access to the ongoing negotiation sessions. The facilities at COP29 include a Food Pavilion organized by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).
After COP28 in Dubai, several countries—led by Norway, Brazil, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, and Cambodia—formed the Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation (ACF). While the Dubai declaration established a minimum standard for individual country actions, the ACF aims to set an ambitious benchmark for all signatories to strive for. In recent years, several other high-ambition climate action coalitions have been created to address various issues, such as mitigation (2015), coal (2017), oil and gas (2021), and the relationship between nature and people (2019). These coalitions have been instrumental in raising agreed-upon action targets at climate conferences, and the ACF now seeks to do the same for global food systems.
At COP29, the UK, New Zealand, and Colombia joined the Coalition on Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Incentives and Subsidies (COFFIS), launched at COP28. COFFIS has sixteen member countries committed to tackling the estimated $1.5 trillion in fossil fuel incentives and subsidies worldwide. However, reforming these subsidies is challenging, as they are often used to support national energy security and reduce household living costs. Only five of the thirteen original COFFIS members have compiled inventories of their national fossil fuel subsidies.
The European Copernicus Climate Change Service forecasts that 2024 will be the hottest year on record since pre-industrial times. They project that 2024 will be 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average global temperature. If this projection holds, it will mark the first year that exceeds the 1.5°C rise deemed a desirable target by the COP21 agreement in Paris in 2015. COP21 also emphasized that global warming should not exceed a 2.0°C rise. If greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2025, as suggested by a recent report from The Economist, the world could remain below the 2.0°C increase in global temperature.
As the world warms, the risk increases of passing global tipping points that could lead to irreversible changes in the climate. It is unclear exactly how much warming would be required to reach such tipping points, which include events like the melting of Boreal permafrost in northern latitudes, the drying out of the Amazon basin in the tropics, and the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. Experts generally agree that exceeding these tipping points—both global and regional—would lead to permanent disruptions in the climate. While nature will adapt and evolve under changing conditions, a long-term global climate disruption will negatively affect humanity.