Dec 04, 2024 COP29: Moving Forward?

Refresher and Context

The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) took place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to November 22, 2024. A UN “Convention” is an international treaty or agreement among countries to tackle a specific issue. The UNFCCC provides a framework for negotiating international agreements on actions that would stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and prevent dangerous human-induced climate changes.

The UNFCCC framework also established the Conference of Parties (COP) meetings calling for this conference, along with the previous 28 conferences. The term “parties” refers to the 193 United Nations member states or countries, in addition to the Holy See, the Cook Islands, the island of Niue, the State of Palestine, and the European Union, totaling 198 parties that are signatories to the UNFCCC.

These conferences offer a forum where representatives of member states and observers—including non-governmental organizations, civil society groups, intergovernmental organizations, scientists, experts, and the media—can exchange information, discuss ideas, propose policies, and advocate for specific actions.

The COP also serves as the key decision-making body of the Convention, requiring consensus (agreement) among all 198 parties. While this ensures that every voice is heard, it slows decision-making and leads to weaker resolutions that do not effectively address the climate crisis. At COP29, conflicting agendas arose, resulting in disputes that hindered meaningful multilateral climate action.

For additional background information, please refer to previous WBI articles: COP26: Optimism vs. Reality and COP28: Moving Forward.

UNFCCC’s Vision

The UNFCCC is also the parent agreement of the 2015 Paris Agreement – COP21 and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol – COP3. The collective vision of these three agreements is “to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system, in a time frame which allows ecosystems to adapt naturally and enables sustainable development.to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that prevents harmful climate outcomes. This stabilization should happen within a timeframe that enables both people and the planet to adapt while also allowing for sustainable economic development.”[1]

The ultimate goal of the UNFCCC vision is to limit the global average temperature increase this century to well below 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels and to strive for a lower increase as close to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius as possible.

COP29’s Goals and Focuses

COP29’s goals and focuses were interconnected and served distinct purposes. The goals outlined the conference’s aims, while focuses emphasized strategies and key approaches to achieving those goals. Although COP29 had National Climate Plans, fossil fuel use, and adaptation efforts as goals, securing a new ambitious climate financing agreement, including carbon crediting, was top billing at the conference, nicknamed the “Finance COP.”

Goals

• Climate Finance Goals—Securing a new ambitious climate financing agreement: the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) and an agreement to operationalize the centralized carbon markets.
• Updated National Climate Plans—Encouraging ambitious country National Determined Contribution Plans (NDC) and ensuring effective implementation.
• Transition from Fossil Fuels Goal—Transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
• Enhancing Adaptation Efforts—COP29 seeks to enhance adaptation strategies for communities already affected by climate change.

Focuses

COP29 focused on effectively implementing established goals, engaging with Stakeholders, addressing specific challenges such as the Loss and Damage Fund and ensuring adequate funding and prioritization for adaptation measures, addressing cross-cutting challenges including Justice and Equity, sustainability, and engaging communities in planning and implementing climate projects.

Challenges to UNFCCC Vision

The UNFCCC faces several significant challenges in achieving its vision of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations and preventing dangerous climate change. Some of the key obstacles include:

• • • The recent contentious negotiations at COP29 illustrate how challenging, time-consuming, and costly the process of reaching a consensus on climate change agreements can be. However, securing the necessary resources and successfully implementing the projects while holding countries accountable for the outcomes may prove even more difficult.
    • Many nations lack the resources to develop implementation capacity and institutional infrastructure support. Capacity building in these areas must be supported. Furthermore, marginalized communities must be given access to discussions and decision-making. Without these interactions, climate actions will be less effective. Successful climate actions will benefit countries by limiting global warming and establishing a country’s successful implementation track record for potential investors to evaluate their risks and paybacks.
    • Prolonged negotiations, insufficient and delayed funding commitments and payments, and lengthy approval and completion times for climate actions will pressure countries to produce more ambitious targets in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
    • There were ongoing contentious disagreements among the parties concerning which entities should contribute to financing climate change efforts. Failure to reach fair country funding responsibilities will undermine the global commitment to limit climate change. For instance, in 2023, China emitted 30.1%, and the United States emitted 11.3% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. China is not currently obligated to contribute to the UN climate finance agreement.
    • Transparency and accountability are essential in establishing and increasing the credibility of developing countries, fostering trust, and encouraging international cooperation and contributions by private investors. Unfortunately, credibility and trust take time to develop.
    • Developed countries may become embroiled in their respective internal political differences, economic downturns, and external conflicts, resulting in reduced commitments or diminished abilities to tackle climate change.

• COP29 Successes and Challenges

  Despite some successes, COP29 concluded on a contentious note. Extensive discussions continued after the conference deadline to reach an agreement on climate finance issues. Many felt relieved that an agreement was ultimately reached.

  Successes

  • • • • • New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)—Despite significant objections from developing nations complaining of insufficient funding, a new annual finance agreement was approved for $1.3 trillion annually. Of the $1.3 trillion, $300 billion, an increase from $100 billion in the previous finance agreement, will come from governments through grants and low-interest loans by 2035.
          • Carbon Markets—Nine years after the initial market groundwork outlined in the Paris Agreement, the UN carbon market’s key standards were finally agreed.
          • Methane Reduction—Over 30 countries have committed to sector-specific methane reduction targets.[2]
          • The Loss and Damage Fund has become fully operational. Contributions to the fund are currently voluntary, with total pledges exceeding $730 million. The fund’s operationalization during COP29 will allow it to start financing projects in 2025.[3]
          • Full implementation of the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) was recognized. This platform for all countries aims to provide “a more transparent, accountable, and supportive system for tracking and reporting climate actions.” The first Biennial Transparency Reports, currently required every two years under the agreement, were submitted at a special event in Baku. The Baku Transparency Platform (BTP) was introduced to increase participation in the ETF process and streamline existing transparency support, especially for developing countries.

  Challenges

  COP29 was marked by significant national tensions, conflicting agendas, and criticisms regarding its organization. Furthermore, during the opening ceremony, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan referred to oil and gas as a “gift from God,” which was not well received.

  • • • • • Contentious Disagreements on Climate Finance – Developed countries have agreed to contribute $300 billion annually by 2035, significantly less than the $1.3 trillion developing countries argued is necessary. The remaining $1 trillion needed each year is expected to come from private sector investors and new sources of finance, including potential income from carbon markets and fossil fuel levies. However, there are no guarantees that these country pledges will be fulfilled, and it remains uncertain whether investors will step up to meet the $1 trillion target from the private sector.
          • Although fossil fuel use is the largest contributor to climate change, there has been limited progress on the commitments to phase out fossil fuels.
          • Concerns were raised regarding the expedited approval of the operational framework for carbon trading between countries and the crediting mechanism. Issues included rushed adoption, the absence of a defined process, and potential unintended consequences.[4]

   

  Final Comments

  During challenging times, we tend to concentrate on what’s going wrong or not functioning, often overlooking what is working. Remarkably, nearly 200 countries have united to recognize the climate change challenge and seek global solutions. People from many different countries, representing various cultures, religions, and politics, are collaborating to protect our planet, its inhabitants, and its ecosystems from the potential harm caused by climate change. WellBeing International lauds and appreciates their efforts.

  We acknowledge the progress and achievements; however, we must also rethink our implementation strategies and roadmaps to meet temperature and timeframe targets. Innovation should be strongly encouraged.

  Here are some considerations for reassessing approaches to implementing existing frameworks.

  • • • • • Given the shortened timeframe for achieving global climate goals, consensus-based decision-making at climate COPs may not be suitable for implementation phases. To make decisions more quickly and effectively, we should consider shifting from a consensus approach to one that is based on a majority decision-making process.
          • Pledges should be legally binding and payable within five years or less.
          • Funding strategies should be reevaluated to ensure they align with our commitment to addressing climate change. Country funding percentages should be reassessed every five years, considering historical emissions, current emissions, and the rate of change in carbon emissions. Therefore, countries that reduce their carbon emissions should be rewarded through adjustments to the funding formulas.
          • WellBeing International recommends implementing climate change actions by forming 10 to 20 “country teams” comprising an appropriate mixture of developed and developing countries. These smaller country teams should facilitate capacity building, technology development and transfer, consistent reporting via the Enhanced Transparency Framework, and group accountability. Such country teams might foster a competitive spirit with an annual table ranking the teams from most to least effective.

  Climate change presents an extraordinarily challenging and existential problem for humanity. Despite its complexities and the widespread skepticism regarding its existence, the United Nations has made significant progress; however, the most difficult challenges of implementation where innovation plays an essential role have yet to be tackled. As the influential management consultant Peter Drucker once stated, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

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  [1] This quote, along with additional information on the UNFCCC and its secretariat, can be found at https://unfccc.int/about-us/about-the-secretariat.

  [2] Earth.Org, 25 November, 2024 – https://earth.org/did-cop29-succeed-or-fail/

  [3] COP29, Azerbailjan,23 November, 2024 – https://cop29.az/en/media-hub/news/-1732385682

  [4] Council on Foreign Relations, 25 November 2024 – Was COP29 in Azerbaijan a Failure? | Council on Foreign Relations